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South Asia is one of the most volatile regions in the world where both antagonistic nuclear powers have, time and again, failed to develop effective communication channels and crisis management mechanisms between two nuclear powers. Throughout history, the region has remained dependent on third-party mediation. The absence of dialogue and trust-building measures makes the region vulnerable to extremely dangerous crises. Much of the criticism goes to India primarily for its reticent approach towards engaging in bilateral arms control mechanisms with Pakistan. Indian leadership’s intransigent attitude towards peace initiatives has resulted in a diplomatic deadlock, which has now become a constant feature of Pakistan-India relations. Under these circumstances, strategic stability in South Asia remains a far-fetched dream.
Last year in December, the UNGA First Committee endorsed four important resolutions put forward by Pakistan with widespread backing, although it is noteworthy that India stood as the solitary dissenting vote. The resolutions titled “Regional disarmament” and “Confidence-building measures in the regional and sub-regional context” were adopted with consensus. Additionally, the resolution titled “Conventional arms control at the regional and sub-regional levels” received the endorsement of 186 member states, with only India casting an opposing vote. While these resolutions emphasize the importance of pursuing arms control in regional and sub-regional contexts, India’s consistent opposition stands out as a stark reminder of the uncertain future of arms control in South Asia. In fact, India’s recent successful test of the Agni-V missile equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology raises further questions about India’s commitment to its declared nuclear policy.
Several interpretations of India’s reluctant behavior towards bilateral arms control arrangements exist. First and foremost, the signs are clear that the leadership in New Delhi has decided to give no space to Pakistan. Both political and military leadership in India understand that the Indian economy has been performing well. Thus, it can afford to divert significant resources to its defense sector. Without realizing the regional sensitivities, western powers are equally eager to sell their sophisticated arms to India. Recently, in Feb 2024, the US approved the sale of 31 MQ-9B armed drones to India at a whopping cost of $4 billion, enhancing India’s capability to meet its so-called current and future challenges through enabling unmanned surveillance and reconnaissance patrols in sea lanes of operation.
With the US arms sales, India’s appetite for sophisticated weapons appears to have even further increased. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh has recently revealed that India plans to allocate nearly $100 billion towards defense expenditures over the next decade. In addition, the Modi government has taken several initiatives, including Make-in-India, towards indigenizing weapons production so that India could further reduce its reliance on major powers for its defense needs. However, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India remains the world’s top arms importer. Interestingly, with an 11% share in global arms imports, India was the biggest importer of weapons between 2018-22. Ironically, with increased domestic weapons production, there hasn’t been a massive reduction in India’s arms purchases.
During PM Modi’s visit to the US last year, both countries agreed on a “next-generation defense partnership,” which includes the co-production of cutting-edge technologies such as jet engines and semiconductors. In addition, the Indian Ministry of Defense and Pentagon have established a new military-tech incubator also known as INDUS-X.
The US’s ‘generous’ arms supply to China apparently aimed at bolstering India’s defense capabilities vis-a-vis China and, subsequently, a gradual reduction in Indian dependency on Russian arms. But, in contrast to US aspirations, India is neither in the mood to counter China nor ready to reduce Russian arms purchases, at least in the near future. For instance, India not only defied US pressure with its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, but it also refused to criticize Russian military action in Ukraine.
However, the influx of state-of-the-art weapons systems, in the backdrop of a burgeoning India-US strategic partnership, will only destabilize the delicate balance in the region. In addition, the possession of sophisticated weapons in India’s arsenal also confers a psychological advantage upon Indian policymakers, consequently reducing the scope for bilateral arms control measures. This superiority creates a mindset that prioritizes military strength over diplomatic negotiations, hindering the progress towards mutually beneficial bilateral arms control mechanisms.
Policymakers in India are convinced that, with the rapid weaponization anticipated in the coming years, the power imbalance between India and Pakistan will become so significant that any potential peace negotiations would likely occur on terms favoring the militarily superior India. This thinking in New Delhi has completely shut the doors for diplomacy and dialogue between nuclear rivals. Although India’s hawkish political leadership has also been constantly rejecting Pakistan’s peace proposals, they fail to realize that their constant refusal to engage in a meaningful dialogue will automatically begin to project Pakistan in a more positive light. Pakistan, on the other hand, has constantly been calling for the initiation of peace talks and the resolution of longstanding disputes, including Kashmir. Pakistan also believes that, in selling sophisticated weapons to India, the US must not overlook the magnitude of issues that would stem from a further deterioration of regional military imbalance.
Although the current situation presents a limited window of opportunity for any peace initiatives between Pakistan and India, the international community, particularly the US, has a responsibility, as it certainly can do more to push India to normalcy, which is also essential for the US interests in the region. Today, South Asia needs peace and prosperity more than ever. The region, which has remained embroiled in military conflicts for several years, can no longer afford another conflict in a nuclearized environment. It’s equally imperative for all regional members to give peace another chance.
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This article was published in another form at https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1175684-a-case-for-peace
