From the last two decades, Indian ambition to become a strongman in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has generated considerable anxiety about the stability of the region. IOR is one of the most important trading routes in the world. Almost two-thirds of the world’s oil trade passes through IOR’s Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC). It extends from Eastern coast of Africa to the Western coast of Australia. Almost 38 countries are sharing their borders with IOR further emphasizing its significance. It is also home to the three most important chokepoints in the world – Strait of Hormuz, Malacca Strait, Bab-el-Mandeb. The subregions in the IOR are South Asia, Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Given the geostrategic, geoeconomic, and geopolitical importance of the region, it is impediment for the responsible states to maintain stability of the region. However, the Indian ambitions evident from evolving Indian naval strategy can provoke instability in IOR and its subregions.
India counts Indian Ocean as its backyard as it is the only ocean in the world named after a state. Indian maritime doctrine, first announced in 2004, evolved from developing a blue water navy to securing seas for its interests. Announced in 2015, latest Indian doctrine is called ‘Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Strategy.’ The highlight of this new doctrine was to ensure India’s role as ‘net security provider’ in the region. Also, India has expanded its primary areas of interest to include Strait of Hormuz, Malacca Strait, and Bab-el-Mandeb alongside other regions like Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal. India is also modernizing its naval capabilities through different means. These include buying modern naval equipment and indigenously developing naval weapons. Further, India is building alliances and partnerships with other states to strengthen its navy. These include Indo-US strategic partnership, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), Indo-Russian partnership alongside other. India is also upgrading its naval bases and facilities in the IOR. In addition to this, India has signed agreements with different regional countries like Singapore, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Mauritius among other countries that can provide it with access to their military facilities.
The Indian ambitions towards IOR as its sphere of influence can change security dynamics of the region. The implications of India being a regional hegemon will be faced by all three sub-regions of IOR – South Asia, Middle East, and Southeast Asia. The South Asian regional security being home to two superpowers – India and Pakistan – is already under stress, where Indian ambitions have led to nuclearization of IOR. Also, any attempt at regional hegemony in South Asia by India can threaten security of Pakistan which can negatively affect already strained strategic stability in the region. A new arms race between New Delhi and Islamabad is certain if there are attempts at regional hegemony.
Middle Eastern politics is undergoing a shift after Saudi-Iran deal under the auspices of China. However, the regional stability and balance in middle east have been threatened by external forces for many a decade. The importance of middle eastern subregion is evident in the fact that is home to two chokepoints Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb. Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway because it is the only route to one-sixth of global oil production and one-third of liquified natural gas. The naval prowess of Middle Eastern states is considerably weak. United States is currently responsible for the security of Strait of Hormuz. However, it is also propping up India as the net security provider in the region. India through its enhanced military and naval capabilities can pursue its own objectives in the region. Naval superiority may provide India with a clout over other regional states increasing their dependency on India. Moreover, the relations between United States and the Gulf countries are in dire state. India as a regional hegemon can upset the strategic equation and destabilize the regional strategic balance.
Malacca Strait is one of the most important chokepoints as it connects Indian Ocean with the Pacific Ocean. It is a major trade and energy conduit for regional states especially China, Japan, and Vietnam including other regional states. Any state that has control over Strait of Malacca can coerce other states for its own benefit. Also, any conflict in the region can disrupt this major trade route threatening the stability of the region. India has offshore military bases in Andaman and Nicobar Islands that are only around 1000 km from the Malacca Strait. Also, India has access to the Changi Naval base in Singapore following 2018 agreement between both states. These bases provide India with operational reach to the Malacca strait. If India ascends as regional hegemon, it can has the capability to hold the chokepoint at its whims, increasing the vulnerabilities of Malacca strait and affecting the stability in Southeast Asia. Further, no regional state in Southeast Asia has the capability to balance Indian naval prowess barring China.
The only major power that has the capability and will to counter increasing role of India is China. Beijing has legitimate interest in the IOR because of its energy and commerce needs. Almost 80% of Chinese oil imports pass through the Indian Ocean. Also, a new era of great power competition has dawned on the world order. The growing competition between the United States and China is shifting theater of competition from Euro-Atlantic to Asia-Pacific. India is taking advantage of this situation by posing as a possible balancer to China. Indian ambitions are putting IOR at the center of this emerging great power rivalry. An increasing competition between major powers for controlling IOR can also have destabilizing effects for the region.
Indian ambitions for regional hegemony in IOR – evident in its naval doctrine, naval modernization, new alliances and partnerships, building and upgrading naval facilities, and agreements for access to foreign military facilities – can threaten in the security architecture of IOR. Moreover, Indian policies is putting IOR at the center of great power competition that can have negative consequences for regional stability.
This article was published in another form at https://inkstickmedia.com/india-is-well-positioned-to-take-advantage-of-the-us-china-rivalry/
Abdul Moiz Khan
Mr Abdul Moiz Khan is currently working as a Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad.
