The Nuclear Non-proliferation Regime (NPR) claims to offer access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, forbids states to make weapons by using this technology, and urges nuclear weapon states (NWS) to negotiate arms control arrangements and pursue disarmament in good faith. The safety and security of nuclear technology is also the mandate of NPR. However, the NPR has been influenced by major global geopolitical developments throughout its existence – the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is one case in point.
The conflict has recalibrated the importance of nuclear weapons in the global political system, giving rise to the debate whether Ukraine’s decision to keep its nuclear arsenal after the Second World War could deter Russia today. The lesson is that nuclear weapons are essential for establishing deterrence and ensuring the survival of a state, particularly in the face of a nuclear-armed or a conventionally strong rival. Today, Japan, South Korea, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Iran, and Poland may be inspired to pursue or acquire nuclear weapons, but the move will surely undermine the effectiveness of NPR in light of the latter’s mandate.
Furthermore, in light of events that have unfolded during the Ukraine crisis, the future of arms control appears bleak. For years, the New START treaty which was meant to cover 90 percent of the global strategic arsenals and was the only operational arms control agreement, but is now in limbo due to emerging great power politics. At first, the United States denied access to Russian inspectors for verification promised under the treaty. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his country’s decision to suspend its membership of New START. The failure to renew or replace this treaty may eventually lead to a dangerous global arms race. The actions of the US and Russia have implications for the global arms control regime.
In a manner similar to the fate of New START, the 2022 NPT review conference (RevCon) could not bring a consensus, mainly due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. The US-led Western bloc’s attempts to add clauses into the RevCon’s draft document to alienate Russia were vetoed and blocked by the latter. Other matters of significance were also put on the back burner, such as the proliferation potential of nuclear-powered submarines provided by NWS to non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS), Iran’s uranium enrichment, the North Korean nuclear weapon program, and many more. Although discussions and consensus over these matters were hardly taking place earlier, and consensus was far from being achieved, the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe has made such initiatives even more difficult to materialize. If disagreements continue to prevail at these forums and the major actors fail at regulating such matters by establishing a consensus, it will make NPR an unproductive regime. If these matters are not addressed properly, they have the potential to increase nuclear proliferation as well.
The chances of nuclear catastrophe are also high. Russia has signaled the threat of using nuclear weapons to deter a possible intervention by NATO states. The American nuclear weapons are also not far from the Russian mainland and are present in some NATO countries that are actively supporting Ukraine. Russian decision to deploy its nukes in Belarus is said to be a response to what the US has been doing in Europe for decades.
Though it is not the first time that the threat of using nuclear weapons has emerged during a crisis or a state has deployed them in another state, the trust deficit among actors is at a different level as compared to previous crises and is continuously increasing, particularly after one of the major confidences building measures between nuclear players party to the conflict – the New START – is virtually frozen.
The safety and security of Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia nuclear plants in the conflict zone is another important issue. Continuous fighting is going on in the town of Enerhodar which is adjacent to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Russia has alleged that Ukrainian forces have launched multiple attacks to take control of the Zaporizhzhia plant. Also, Russian authorities have recently evacuated 18 settlements that are next to Zaporizhzhia. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been allowed access to the plant and the Agency can play an important role provided the conflicting parties understand the severity of the security situation and losses. Though Moscow has confirmed that the radiation level around Chernobyl is normal and everything is under control at Zaporizhzhia, the proximity of active conflict zones to nuclear power plants poses grave risks to their safety and security.
The Russian-Ukraine conflict is thus creating serious concerns about the legitimacy of NPR by undermining the existing non-proliferation arrangements, hindering consensus-building at non-proliferation forums, and providing a stimulus to the NNWS for nuclear weapon development. The spillovers may affect other regions, invoking power-seeking revisionist states to instigate instability for gaining hegemony, such as India.
Hence, all parties to the conflict must adhere to agreed arms control arrangements. Urgent steps must be taken to prevent further erosion of the global nuclear order besides restoring respect for international law and mutually agreed norms. Russia, Ukraine, and the IAEA must design joint mechanisms to ensure the safety and security of nuclear power plants. Matters of global concern can be regulated by developing consensus and filling gaps in the nuclear order emerging in the wake of the Ukraine crisis to strengthen the NPR and global security architecture.
This article was published in another form at https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224654/fallout-ukraine-war-erosion-global-nuclear-non-proliferation-regime
Mr Fakhar Alam
Mr Fakhar Alam is currently working as a Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad.
