The security dynamics of South Asia has changed dramatically after the U.S. hasty and unpremeditated withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. As a result, a number of security threats emerged for neighbouring countries, especially Pakistan. In order to alleviate the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan and avert the government’s economic collapse, Pakistan played a key role in mobilizing the international assistance for the newly emerged Taliban government. Regarding the blocked foreign bank reserves of Afghanistan, Pakistan maintained that they belonged to the country and should be released immediately. Pakistan consistently strived for stability of the region along with peaceful Afghanistan.
After the end of U.S. War in Afghanistan, Islamabad was particularly concerned about the possible impact on Pakistan’s internal and external security environment, especially in regard to terrorist threats from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). When Afghan Taliban captured Kabul on 15 Aug 2021, Pakistan expected them to stop its territory being used by TTP for carrying out terrorist attacks inside Pakistan. However, Taliban failed to change the actual situation on the ground related to TTP’s illegal activities. The top TTP leadership is enjoying extraordinary freedom in Afghanistan and this is very irking for Pakistan and a major issue for Pak-Afghan relations.
The menace of terrorism has cast a grim shadow over Pakistan for over two decades. There are major concerns in Pakistan’s policy circles over Taliban’s capacity to stop terrorist operations originating from Afghan soil into neighbouring States. Taliban’s complacent approach towards TTP has led to terrorist activities in Pakistan.
A recent annual Global Terrorism Index (GTI), compiled by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), has shown some alarming statistics. In 2022, Pakistan witnessed the second-largest surge in terrorism-related deaths globally, soaring to 643 – a frightening 120 percent increase from the preceding year’s toll of 292.
Recently on 12 Dec 2023, 25 soldiers of the Pakistan Army martyred, while 27 terrorists were located and killed in three distinct incidents in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Dera Ismail Khan. The responsibility of Dera Ismail Khan’s terrorist attack has been claimed by Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan, a terrorist group associated with the TTP. This whole scenario demands a proactive approach by Afghan government to stop cross-border terrorism.
Initially, Pakistan took a conciliatory stance, by having peace talks with the TTP, with the Afghan Taliban’s playing the role of intermediary. During negotiations in October 2021, there was optimism that the protracted terrorist activities of TTP will be effectively countered with peaceful means. Despite a lot of criticism domestically, Pakistan went a step further and as an act of goodwill gesture, Islamabad freed more than 100 TTP prisoners and both parties declared a ceasefire in November 2021.
Islamabad’s decision to start peaceful reconciliation with TTP was made after considering the heavy price of ongoing conflict and instability in Afghanistan. Pakistan anticipated that the unrest in Afghanistan would probably make it easier for India to carry out nefarious operations against Pakistan from Afghan territory. India is advancing its so-called ‘Defensive Offence’ strategy by assisting the brutal terrorist activities of the TTP. Indian analysts are openly acknowledging ties between the Indian spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), and the TTP.
Therefore, the persistent obstacles presented by terrorism demanded a shift in approach, even if it meant readjusting the relationship with the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban’s incapacity to stop TTP’s terrorist activities and India’s covert assistance of TTP, foiled the entire reconciliation effort.
After the Taliban failure to stop cross-border terrorism, Pakistan decided to send illegal Afghan refugees back to their homeland. However, this decision provoked an unwarranted backlash against Pakistan in the Western media. Ironically, the states leading this criticism are concurrently constructing border walls, attacking ships at sea, and setting up prisoner camps to stop the influx of illegal refugees. Pakistan has shown its moral and ethical commitment to humanitarian efforts for almost more than 40 years by providing shelter to millions of Afghans. As of 2023, up to 75 percent of suicide terrorist attacks in Pakistan were carried out by Afghan nationals. Instead of making threats against Pakistan, Kabul should help Islamabad by stopping cross-border terrorism and resettling the Afghan refugees in their homeland. By working together, Afghanistan and Pakistan can achieve a mutually beneficial arrangement that can support border security and human rights protection.
Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan has not changed despite the persistent security threats from its western border. Pakistan has consistently reinforced the peace initiatives in Afghanistan and has maintained that stability in Afghanistan would be beneficial to the entire region. Islamabad nevertheless harbours concerns, especially related to the safe havens available for TTP in Afghanistan. These concerns highlight the ongoing complexity in the two countries’ bilateral relationship. Islamabad is constantly reminding the current Afghan government that TTP is acting as spoiler against the peaceful coexistence of both countries. To maintain sustainable peace in the region while promoting regional economic and social collaboration, the terrorist factions like TTP must be dealt with assertively.
About the Author
Mr Hasan Ehtisham is a Senior Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
