Imran Khan has promised to bring about a change in Pakistan. This would entail taking vital steps in the way the country is being run. Pakistan’s foreign policy has greatly suffered over the last few years as it is said to have not been handled in a proper manner. Is Imran Khan on the right track in foreign relations in view of Pakistan’s role in the region and the world?
Pakistan confronts a troubled neighborhood, with the civil war-like situation in Afghanistan, tense relations with India over the ever-simmering Kashmir dispute and cross-border terrorism, and the sputtering partnership with the United States.
Imran Khan’s policy vis-à-vis Afghanistan is one of ‘open borders’, with emphasis on bilateral economic cooperation and bridging the trust deficit. It is commendable that Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood. Qureshi signaled his government’s support in facilitating the peace initiative of the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani with the Taliban.
He also reemphasized Imran Khan’s point that peace and stability in Afghanistan would mean the same in Pakistan and that the Pakistan government would try and find ways to ensure lasting peace in Afghanistan.
It would, however, be a challenge for the Pakistan government to bridge the trust deficit that exists due to incriminations from both sides over the alleged sponsorship of terrorists against each other.
Previously, General Qamar Bajwa had asked the Afghanistan government to do more and establish its writ over its territory, large swathes of which are intensely contested (30%) or are in complete control (4%) of the Taliban.
What was missing from the schema of the foreign minister was a strong need to install border fencing and send refugees back to Afghanistan to ward off the cross-border flow of terrorists and drug-traffickers. Pakistan has to seek political backing from the Afghan government and financial and diplomatic upkeep from the international community, in particular the US, for robust border control.
Imran Khan’s policy toward the United States is also seen through the prism of Afghanistan. Mr Qureshi has remarked that in order to reinvigorate the strained ties, both Pakistan and the US must acknowledge each other’s priorities and concerns in Afghanistan.
This understanding constitutes the foundation for the “productive and trust-based bilateral relationship” that the leadership from both sides has agreed upon. Currently, the US’s top demand from Pakistan is to convince the Taliban to commit to the ongoing peace talks.
If Imran Khan succeeds on that front, Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director Asia Program of Woodrow Wilson Center, states that it may move the needle forward on increasing cooperation with the US on multiple fronts, not least the coveted supply of high-tech weapons and resumption of security assistance to Pakistan.
As for Imran Khan’s policy with India, his government has sought “continued and uninterrupted dialogue” to settle all outstanding matters, including Kashmir. Imran Khan’s policy also chimes with the stance of General Bajwa who also has favoured peace and “comprehensive and meaningful dialogue” with India.
It seems the much-touted civil-military divide will not be at play in the current times. Yet, a lot will depend on how much the Prime Minister remains engaged with the military’s top brass to gain inter-institutional consensus on his foreign policy moves.
According to some analysts, India would not agree to holding a dialogue with Pakistan as long as Kashmir remains Pakistan’s top priority and Pakistan does not take tangible legal action against suspects of Mumbai and Pathankot attacks. Also, there is an election spell in India. Kugelman argues that it would be “poor optics” for Modi to engage with Pakistan for the peace talks.
In the words of Pakistan’s former ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, “Imran Khan will have to try and extricate himself from the heavy baggage of mutual distrust” with India, for which, a mature and more realistic approach to diplomacy and countering of terrorism is required.
Both India and Pakistan need to create a congenial climate. It is also in India’s greater interest to engage with Pakistan as it needs the overland access to Afghanistan and Central Asia through Pakistan. It is unlikely for Pakistan to permit India its transit facilities, which represent one of the most important cards for Pakistan to push India towards resolving the Kashmir issue.
The relationship between Pakistan and China is considered to be an exemplary one. Foreign Minister Quereshi has admirably expressed a commitment to advance the projects under the CPEC, including bringing them to the Parliament to ensure transparency and removing the opacities over their terms and conditions.
Imran Khan, however, may need to recalibrate the terms of some projects under the CPEC that are augmenting the debt-to-equity ratio. He may also need to reverse the Free Trade Agreement and tax holidays on 3000 items of import from China since such policies were severely hurting the local manufacturing market and limiting local entrepreneurs’ ability to compete with China’s comparatively cheap products.
On the Saudi-Iran equation, Mr Khan’s government will try and maintain a good balancing act. Saudi Arabia is a strategically important partner of Pakistan and has always stood by it in times of adversity. Recently, it infused $1 billion in Pakistan’s central bank and backed the Islamic Development Bank to provide $4 billion to the Pakistani government, with a view to propping up the depleting foreign exchange reserves.
On the other hand, Pak-Iran relations are prone to remain under duress due to the ongoing tensions between Iran and the US and Trump’s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal. Though Imran Khan has vowed to play a mediatory role in the Saudi-Iran rivalry and has showed positive leanings towards Iran, only time will tell how the new government navigates through the maelstrom – Saudi Arabia’s influence and the reimposed sanctions on Iran by the U.S.
In a general analysis, Pakistan needs to follow the Chinese model of not intervening in regional conflicts and shelving territorial disputes with contending neighbours. It needs to focus on economic engagement to bolster its economic prosperity and bargain with them from citadel position of economic strength.
Moreover, when Qureshi talks of expanding Pakistan’s export reach to Africa, the thrust of economic diplomacy demands that he should also talk about Pakistan’s expansion of trade with the South East Asian states of South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Japan.
Pakistan must produce exportable surpluses to capture market share in these countries. Pakistan can also secure foreign investments and joint ventures and attract cultural tourism from the south east Asian countries.
Finally, the most encouraging aspects of the government’s have been its unparalleled focus on socio-economic uplift of the common citizenry and asking Pakistani diaspora to form influential lobbies abroad. It is also synergizing with the local media to improve Pakistan’s narrative-building abroad as a moderate, dynamic, peaceful and progressive society.
The PTI-led government is still in a fledgling position. Its foreign policy needs to be further fine-tuned in synchronization with developments around the world.
This article was published in the South Asia Magazine, Volume 22 Issue 9, September 2018.
http://southasia.com.pk/cs-9.html
Riaz Khokhar
Riaz Khokhar is a Research Assistant at the Center for International Strategic Studies. Mr. Khokhar holds a Masters degree in International Relations from Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. His research interests include Pakistan’s foreign policy affairs, strategic dimensions of world affairs and nexus of security and economic issues among South Asian states. He wrote his Masters thesis on Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Posture after Donald Trump’s Coming into Power, completed in May 2017.
